We have updated our Hard Number Index (HNI) of the state of the SA economy to March 2011. The HNI combines two very up-to-date hard numbers, unit vehicle sales and the note issue of the Reserve Bank adjusted for Consumer Prices to form a business cycle indicator.
The HNI continued to move higher in March, though the speed at which the economy is moving forward (the rate of change of the HNI itself) has probably stabilised and may well slow down. We also compare the HNI with the Co-Inciding Business Cycle Indicator of the Reserve Bank that is only updated to January 2011. The turning points of the two Indexes are well aligned making the HNI a good and up to date leading indicator of the current state of the economy.
Read the rest of the story in Daily Ideas in today’s Daily View: The state of the SA economy: Moving forward but not picking up speed