Monetary policy: How much room for manoeuvre?

Asking the right questions

The Monetary Policy Committee of the Reserve Bank will be asking this question of the economy today and tomorrow. They will be well aware that despite a severe decline in household spending (household spending declined at a real 4.9% rate in Q1 2009) net flows of capital to SA continued at near record rates, equivalent to 7% of GDP. All other things remaining the same, had spending growth been anything like normal, the flows of capital from abroad would have to have been even greater.

Avoiding the wrong answers

Perhaps it will be suggested by committee members that it would be unrealistic to expect capital flows of larger orders of magnitude – so limiting severely the scope for more household spending – and by implication the scope for lower interest rates that are urgently called for to encourage households to spend more and banks to lend more. We will argue that this would be the conclusion to draw from what is an inappropriate line of enquiry. Such thinking has caused the economy unnecessary distress in the recent past.

These are not normal times

Normally such a severe reduction in spending as occurred in Q1 2009, would have led to fewer goods and services imported, an improvement in the balance of trade and so less capital imported. The problem however was that the volume of exports declined at an even faster rate than real imports in Q1 – the result obviously of the global recession that reduced in particular demands for metals, minerals and motor cars from SA. The weaker trade balance dragged down GDP, which declined at a very depressing 6.4% rate in the quarter.

Spending in general held up in Q1 2009

However not all categories of domestic spending were in retreat in Q1. Surprisingly and somewhat anomalously, household spending on services actually grew at a brisk 7.5% rate amidst the consumer gloom – implying that spending on consumer goods will have declined at an over 12% annual rate. Gross fixed capital formation continued to increase, though at a very sedate pace compared to a year before, and government consumption spending also rose marginally.

Final demands, being the sum of household and government consumption spending and fixed capital formation, declined at only a net 1.5% rate. The disinvestment in Inventories of -R10.2bn, half the decline estimated for Q4 2008, meant that Gross Domestic Expenditure actually grew at a 2.2% annual rate in Q1 2009. (See the tables below sourced from the Quarterly Bulletin of the SA Reserve Bank June 2009)

Spending held up as did capital inflows and prices came down

Thus aggregate demand in general held up much better than aggregate output and this was made possible by robust capital flows. These capital flows also helped to strengthen the rand and by so doing lowered the rand prices of imported goods and services including capital goods. Without these more favourable trends in the prices of goods, particularly at the ports and the factory and farm gates, spending presumably would have been even weaker.

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Guesses about the pace of capital flows have been wrong and may continue to be wrong

Trying to second guess the ability of the SA economy to attract capital and to set monetary and fiscal policy accordingly is in our view quite the wrong way to steer the SA economy. Yet such concerns have been an important and unhelpful influence on monetary policy in the recent past. They led to a much weaker rand in 2006-7 as higher interest rates came to threaten the growth outlook for the economy.

The guesses about the attractions of the SA economy to foreign capital are very likely to be wrong ones. Such guestimates have almost certainly underestimated actual capital flows to SA in recent years. They have not taken into full account the favourable feedback loop from faster growth to increased flows of capital into account. If growth can be kept going with sympathetic monetary policy settings, that emphasise the objective of sustaining growth, more capital can flow in to make that growth possible. And more capital means a stronger rand and less rather more inflation to accompany faster growth. That the SA economy could attract net foreign capital flows, at the rate equivalent to 7% of GDP in a recession as it did last quarter, would have been inconceivable to balance of payments model builders.

The conclusion the MPC should come to

The conclusion we believe the MPC should come to about its room for manoeuvre is to do all it can to revive household spending. Lower interest rates combined with quantitative easing is called for. If this should however mean a weaker rand because the extra foreign capital is not forthcoming this would mean a weaker rand and so be it. This would unfortunately mean higher prices and counter the stimulatory influence of lower interest rates.

Do not second guess the rand

The rand however should not be the objective of policy either directly, when the Reserve Bank intervenes in the currency market, or indirectly when it makes judgments about the sustainability of capital flows and sets interest rates accordingly. The rand should be allowed to find a value that is consistent with achieving a good balance between potential and actual domestic output. This is the only proper goal for fiscal and monetary policy with low inflation seen as a means to this end rather than an objective of policy itself.

The rand as we have indicated may well stand up well if faster growth were achieved and so more capital is attracted. The Reserve Bank should never feel constrained by fear of capital flows when encouraging domestic spending providing such spending is insufficient to the purpose of maintaining potential output and employment.

Realism called for

Yet the MPC will have to be realistic about how much influence it can have today on the economy. Any immediate revival in domestic spending growth is unlikely even with lower interest rates and quantitative easing. The confidence and wealth of SA households have suffered too much recent damage to expect any immediate response. Paradoxically even if the MPC does not share our view of the world the thought that spending is unlikely to revive soon will encourage the Committee to lower interest rates.

Therefore the relief for GDP growth is much more likely to come from exporting into a reviving global economy than from household spending. We expect the MPC to cut its repo rate by 50bps and by another 50bps in July. Any deeper cut now would be very welcome to us and the markets.

The SA Business Cycle: Hard numbers still pointing to lower levels of activity

Our Hard Number Index (HNI) can now be updated for May 2009 with the release of two hard numbers, vehicle sales and the notes issued by the Reserve Bank at May month end. As we show below there is no sign of any improving trend in the SA economy to be derived from the HNI. The Index attempts to replicate the pace of growth – higher numbers indicate that growth is picking up momentum that is accelerating while lower numbers indicate that growth is slowing down.

The HNI peaked in late 2006 at a value of over 165 indicating that the economy was then moving ahead at a very rapid rate. The latest reading for May 2009 is 106.06 and down from its 109.06 reading in April. This indicates that not only has the economy slowed down but that it is in now in reverse and probably going backward more rapidly than earlier in the year.

The HNI may be regarded as representing the first derivative of the economy. The second derivative, that is the rate of change of the rate of change in economic activity, is still pointing lower indicating little sign of a bottoming out in the pace of economic activity.

The Hard Number Index May 2009

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Source: Investec Securities

The SA Business Cycle – The second derivative

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Source: Investec Securities

New vehicle sales are still in decline

Vehicle sales in May provide very little cause for comfort that interest rate sensitive spending is responding to lower interest rates. The growth measured as the change in vehicles sold in May 2009 over May 2008 showed a further decline compared to April growth. More discouraging is that the underlying trend in vehicle sales is still pointing down rather than up. We calculate this trend by smoothing vehicle sales and then annualising the monthly growth in this smoothed measure.

Growth in New Vehicle Sales

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Source: NAAMSA, Investec Securities

Not all bad news – the money cycle is pointing up

It is fortunately not all bad news. There is some consolation to be derived from the latest trends in the cash, that is Reserve Bank money supplied to the SA economy. Adjusted for the inflation trend, we can now observe an improving trend as may be seen below. Annual growth has turned marginally positive and the underlying trend has improved suggesting that a sustainable recovery in the supply of cash is under way. The driver of this series is lower inflation rather than any pick up in the cash supply itself as we also show. The growth in the actual cash supply (not adjusted for inflation) has been trending marginally lower as may be seen.

The real money supply cycle

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Source: Investec Securities

The cash cycle

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Source: Investec Securities

Is the Bank undertaking quantitative easing?

In this regard it is to be noted that the gross foreign exchange reserves of the Reserve Bank increased by a large US$1.724bn in May 2009. This indicates that the bank was very active resisting rand strength last month, notwithstanding the recent remarks from the Governor about intervention in the currency market. Of greater interest is that these purchases to not appear to have been sterilised by treasury open market sales of government securities.

The government deposits at the Reserve Bank that would indicate such operations actually fell in May to R66.153bn from R66.402bn in April. This may indicate that the bank and the treasury agree with us that quantitative easing, that is supplying the banks with more cash via operations in the currency market, to encourage them to lend more freely, is a good idea, given the weak state of the economy. A recovery in the supply of money and bank credit is essential to the purpose of reviving the SA economy.

No room for complacency about the state of the SA economy – aggressive policy action is called for

Grim news from the shop keepers

Retail sales statistics were updated yesterday 13 May. The state of the retail sector in March 2009 provides no comfort at all about the state of the SA economy. The statistics indicate that sales adjusted for inflation are still falling at an accelerating rate. Interpreting retail activity is always complicated by the Easter holidays that may come in March or April, as they did this year. We will need to wait for the April numbers to fully adjust for Easter.

Continue reading No room for complacency about the state of the SA economy – aggressive policy action is called for